Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are set to test each other’s mettle as they battle over the debt limit, government funding and the 2024 election.
The two leaders don’t have much of a personal relationship, according to congressional aides and strategists, and their working relationship is off to a rocky start, with Schumer accusing McCarthy and his House GOP colleagues of pushing an “extreme” agenda that would undercut women’s health care and cut Medicare and Social Security benefits.
Despite the shots, Schumer is hoping to develop enough rapport with McCarthy to avoid a government shutdown and to pass a debt ceiling hike that would prevent a downgrading of the nation’s credit rating — or worse.
Bigger legislative deals are much less likely, as is a warmer working relationship.
“There’s been no reason up until now for them to have a relationship,” said Rodell Mollineau, a Democratic strategist and former aide to the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).
He noted that it doesn’t help McCarthy with his own GOP conference to be compromising with Schumer.
“So openly and publicly having a good relationship with Schumer doesn’t help him,” Mollineau said.
McCarthy has developed a back channel relationship of sorts with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), according to GOP aides.
McCarthy and McConnell don’t often make public appearances together, but aides say they have a good relationship and meet regularly.
A GOP leadership aide told The Hill the two leaders try to meet at least once every congressional work period and rotate meetings between their two offices, using a private hallway between the two chambers.
McConnell and McCarthy have repeatedly split in public over high-profile bills, such as the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, legislation to address gun violence after the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, a $280 billion bill to help the domestic semi-conductor industry, and the year-end $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package.
McConnell voted for all four major bills while McCarthy voted against all of them.
McCarthy’s relationship with Schumer will be far more complicated in the 118th Congress because the new Speaker doesn’t have the same freedom he had in 2021 and 2022 to vote against bipartisan and must-pass bills.
“It’s always a balancing act when different parties control different chamber. Obviously there will be some things they have to get done, and that’s a three-way relationship” with President Biden, as well, said Mike Lux, a Democratic strategist.
If McCarthy refuses to put legislation on the House floor to raise the debt limit or fund the government that can also get 60 votes to pass the Senate, it could lead to a default or shutdown.
The problem for McCarthy is that if he brings a compromise bill to the House floor, it could trigger a snap vote on whether he remains as Speaker. McCarthy agreed to a rules package that allows just one conservative to force a vote on a new Speaker.
“I think McCarthy is going to be extremely dysfunctional because his caucus is extremely dysfunctional and the [House] rules package is ridiculous,” Lux said. “Democrats are going to need to press on getting the things done that have to get done” such as raising the debt limit and funding government “and we can’t expect to get done many other things.”
McCarthy in a television interview Sunday pointed out that the new House GOP majority has already passed legislation, such as a bill to cancel $72 billion in funding to hire new Internal Revenue Service agents and beef up the agency’s auditing power.
He also highlighted legislation that passed the House last week with a large bipartisan majority to ban the export of reserve oil to China and called on the Senate to take up the measure.
McCarthy told Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo” that he would like to see Senate Democrats from Republican-leaning states put pressure on their leadership to bring the House-passed legislation to the Senate floor for a vote.
He called on Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who are up for re-election next year, “and others who say they’re moderates” to work with the House.
Schumer has shown an ability to partner with Republicans.
The Democratic leader worked with Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), who at the time was the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, to introduce the Endless Frontier Act in 2020, which later became the basis for last year’s $280 billion Chips and Science Act.
Schumer told CNN in an interview Friday that he hopes the new House GOP majority will mellow over the next few months and “mainstream Republicans” in the lower chamber will look to strike deals with Senate Democrats and the White House.
“I don’t want to have them just investigate and pass the crazy bills led by a few extremists,” he said. “I do believe — not in the next two weeks but in the next few months — many of the mainstream Republicans when you talk to them privately, they despise what the MAGA folks have done, will come back and that gives McCarthy some ability to come back and negotiate and get some real things done for the American people.”
At the same time, Schumer is counting on the most conservative members of the House to overplay their hands, giving his party plenty of material to use in the 2024 elections. Senate Democrats face a difficult map in that cycle.
Accordingly, Schumer is mixing entreaties for common ground with sharp attacks portraying the House GOP conference as controlled by extreme conservative ideologues.
“Unfortunately, what we’ve seen this week from House Republicans is more chaos and ultra MAGA proposals,” he write in a “Dear Colleague” letter circulated on Friday.
“I want to work with Speaker McCarthy to get things done, but so far, House Republicans have been focused on delivering for wealthy special interests and the extreme win of their party,” he wrote.
Some House Republicans are talking about increasing the age for when future Social Security and Medicare benefits kick in as well as changing benefits for beneficiaries in their early 50s and younger.
Democratic strategists say that will help Biden and Democrats up for reelection in tough states, such as Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio), in 2024.
Democratic strategists say Schumer and Biden are relying on the House GOP providing them plenty of political ammo heading into the presidential election.
“The House Republicans are going to pass some crazy things on their side, things that are outside the mainstream, things that will offend independent voters, different constituencies and I think that’s the way Democrats will play up the MAGA extremism,” Mollineau said.
Schumer pledged in his letter to colleagues that Senate Democrats will be “a firewall” against House Republican extremism, pointing to the House GOP’s formation of a new powerful Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.
The Democratic leader argued the panel will “undermine and threaten law enforcement” and shows “they’re more interested in defending Jan. 6th insurrectionists and carrying water for the disgraced former president than protecting democracy,” referring to former President Trump. The Hill’s Morning Report — Biden, House GOP trade blows Biden documents case marks Garland’s latest test
Democratic strategists say, however, that Schumer and Senate Democratic committee chairmen have limited power to counter House GOP investigations of the Biden administration other than to invite Cabinet officials to the Senate to tell their side of the story.
“Senate Democrats can help the administration fight back against the House GOP by utilizing hearings with Cabinet secretaries and administration officials to refute the narratives coming from the Republicans. Every hearing will be an opportunity for Senate Democrats to help the White House set the record straight,” said Matt House, a Democratic strategist and former senior aide to Schumer.
Schumer, however, hasn’t said whether he expects Democratic-controlled Senate committees to take up investigations into Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol or his personal business dealings.