The Fed meeting, pressure on Oracle, Target’s fashion-forward renovation and more in Morning Squawk

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Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

• Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point decrease, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
• But many are expecting it to be a “hawkish cut,” meaning the central bank will make clear that it could be its last reduction for a while.
• CNBC’s Fed survey shows 87% of respondents believe the central bank will lower rates today, though only 45% think it actually should. Just 35% predict another cut in January.
• Still, the Russell 2000 climbed to all-time highs yesterday as investors bet on a forthcoming loosening in monetary policy, which is known to benefit smaller companies.
• But the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back, the latter weighed down by JPMorgan Chase after the bank said it expects higher-than-anticipated expenses for next year. Both indexes are in the red for the week.
• Meanwhile, CNBC’s Steve Liesman reported this morning that President Donald Trump will start final interviews for the Fed’s next chair this week — starting with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
• Follow live markets updates here.

After Powell finishes his conference, investors won’t have long to wait before another potential market catalyst. Oracle is reporting its second quarter earnings after the bell — and the pressure is on.

As CNBC’s Seema Mody notes, the technology company needs to show it can continue to finance its bold infrastructure plans. Oracle has emerged as a leader within artificial intelligence in recent months, so the company also needs to prove its AI-driven growth story is sound.

Oracle shares are little changed in premarket trading this morning. The stock is up more than 30% this year, even after seeing its biggest one-month drop in more than two decades in October.

Eli Lilly said yesterday it would spend $6 billion building a manufacturing plant in Huntsville, Alabama, to support the production of its experimental obesity pill, along with other drugs. As CNBC’s Annika Kim Constantino notes, it’s the third facility the company has announced as part of its plan to increase domestic manufacturing.

Pfizer, meanwhile, announced a $2.1 billion licensing deal with Chinese-owned YaoPharma to develop and commercialize its obesity pill. The agreement marks Pfizer’s latest push into the blockbuster weight-loss market following its acquisition of Metsera last month.

Millions of student loan borrowers whose payments have been on pause could soon be forced to restart payments. The Department of Education said yesterday that a proposed settlement would require borrowers enrolled in the Biden-era Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan to select a new repayment method.

The proposal comes as new data shows 42% of student loan borrowers said they have a harder time paying for necessities such as food and housing as a result of their monthly payments. More than half of respondents said their debt has made it more difficult to save for retirement.

Target is trying to position itself as a trend and style leader. It’s doing so in one of New York City’s most fashionable neighborhoods.

The retailer has renovated its SoHo store to include rotating merchandise, a beauty bar and displays curated by celebrities and influencers. Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke called the location “a punctuation point” for Target’s style sensibilities and its future path as the company aims to win back consumers’ discretionary dollars.

As CNBC’s Melissa Repko reports, the redesign of the store’s first floor took four months, with Target rushing to reopen the location in time for the holiday season. Click here to take a look inside.